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Thursday, Oct 23, 2014

UFC 179: Jose Aldo’s Powers Remain at Their Peak According to the Numbers

Aldo

By Kelsey Mowatt

Jose Aldo may be heading into UFC 179 engaged in one of the sport’s most impressive runs, but a narrative filled with questions is also following the renowned, featherweight champ.

Aldo will rematch Chad Mendes at a time when some critics, like the brash Conor McGregor, have questioned whether the fighter’s powers remain what they were. Since Aldo KO’d Mendes in January, 2012, two of his three wins have been by decision. The Brazilian took out the rugged Chan Sung Jung last August in round four, but the stoppage materialized as “The Korean Zombie” struggled with a dislocated shoulder.

On the other hand, Mendes has put together a five fight win streak, which includes three knockout wins and a TKO victory. During this time, the Team Alpha Male fighter has demonstrated he holds far more weapons, than just explosive takedowns or a punishing top game.

Then, of course, there have been the well documented struggles of Aldo’s teammate, Renan Barao. In May, the highly regarded bantamweight was stopped by Mendes’ training partner, TJ Dillashaw. In August, the former champ fell ill while cutting weight, and lost his opportunity to avenge the loss.

Despite the fact Barao and Aldo are not the same person, some have pointed to Dillashaw’s evolution and his one sided win over Barao, as further indicators that Mendes could be set for the upset.

While it remains to be seen what unfolds Saturday night in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the Fight Metric data does not point to any notable decline in Aldo’s game.

Jose Aldo (photo via UFC.com)

When the champion was booked to fight Mendes at UFC 142, Aldo was a few months removed from a unanimous decision win over Kenny Florian at UFC 136. In that bout, Aldo landed 44% of his significant strikes, and defended all but 1 of Florian’s 19 takedown attempts. The challenger managed to land 31% of his significant strikes.

During Aldo’s decision win over Mark Hominick, which took place earlier in 2011, he landed 43% of his significant strikes. The latter scored 39% of his. The big difference in that memorable fight came through Aldo’s grappling, as we was able to land 5 of his 9 takedown attempts.

In Aldo’s well documented victory over Mendes, the Nova Uniao fighter landed 47% of significant strikes and defended all 7 of the contender’s takedown attempts. Mendes actually outstruck Aldo, and landed 56% of his significant strikes. Aldo, however, landed the most crucial blow of all, by flooring Mendes with a vicious knee as the opening round came to a close.

Up next, Aldo took on former lightweight champ Frankie Edgar, who at the time, was widely considered to be one of the planet’s best pound-for-pound fighters (and many believe he still is). In the five round fight, Aldo also bested Edgar in significant strike totals, by landing 30% of them. “The Answer”, on the other hand, scored with his telling strikes 22% of the time. In terms of the wrestling metrics, the explosive Edgar was only able to land 2 of his 11 takedown attempts.

Against Jung, Aldo was even more dominant, as he outscored the resilient featherweight in significant strikes by a 36% to 14% margin. The 28 year-old also shot in on Jung five times, and secured a takedown with each attempt.

This past February, Aldo worked his way to a unanimous decision win over Ricardo Lamas at UFC 169. From a metrics perspective, once again, the champion impressed.

Aldo landed 52% of his significant strikes while Lamas scored his 28% of the time. “The Bully” was unable to enact the punishing game he’s showcased before, as Aldo defended 5 of his 6 takedown attempts. In addition, the champion took Lamas to the mat on the two occasions he shot in on the experienced wrestler.

Of course, no one outside of Aldo’s camp really knows how the fighter’s preparation for Mendes has gone. Or how Aldo may perform, considering the rivalry which has apparently blossomed between himself and Mendes. If the latter does indeed end Aldo’s reign on Saturday, however, it will say more about his development as a fighter than any alleged decline in the champ.

posted by FCF Staff @ 8:00 am
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