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Monday, Nov 10, 2014

UFC FN 56: Looking at the Numbers Behind Warlley Alves’ Controversial Win

Warlley Alves (photo via UFC.com)

By FCF Staff

The consensus amongst observers and media outlets seems to be that Warlley Alves should not have been awarded a unanimous decision win at UFC Fight Night 56, but what do the numbers say?

Alves was awarded a 29-28 score by all three judges Saturday night in Uberlandia, Brazil, which handed the welterweight the victory over Alan Jouban. Alves came out firing to begin the fight, and appeared close to finishing it, but Jouban recovered and outscored the Brazilian throughout the remainder of the bout. The judge’s scorecards indicate that all three officials gave the first two rounds to Alves, and the last to Jouban.

According to Fight Metric, Jouban landed 79 of his 156 significant strikes during the memorable bout for a success rate of  50%. Alves, meanwhile, only landed 47 of 106 significant strikes for a percentage of 44.

The total strike numbers are even more telling. Jouban threw a total of 173 strikes and landed 96 for a success rate of 55%. Alves, on the other hand, landed 55 of 111 total strikes for a clip of 49%.

Alan Jouban (left) and Warlley Alves (photo via FOX Sports)

Of course, fights are determined by who wins each round, rather than the fight in sum. As noted above, the judges awarded Alves the first two frames.

The Fight Metric data reflects that Jouban landed 63% of his significant strikes in round 1, 41% in round two, and 50% in round three. Alves, on the other hand, scored 50% of his significant strikes in the opening frame, 45% of them in round two and only 39% in round three.

In terms of the grappling numbers, Alves scored a takedown in round two, which was the only one he attempted throughout the entire fight according to the data. The only submission attempt took place in round one, when Alves went for a guillotine choke, which Jouban worked out of.

So, the issue of who in fact won the bout, seems to hinge on whether one believes Jouban won the second round or not. Many outlets had Alves winning the first round, due to his aggressive start and submission attempt. In terms of the striking data, it had Jouban outscoring Alves in the opening frame, but coming up short in the second.

As far as the third round, the judges awarded it to Jouban, and the numbers clearly point to the American winning that frame as well.

Controversy aside, Alves improved his record to 8-0 with the victory and he is 2-0 now in the UFC. Jouban saw his record fall to 10-3 and the welterweight is now 1-1 in the Octagon.

posted by FCF Staff @ 12:26 pm
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